Today’s EV Charging Trends Won’t Predict Tomorrow’s Demand

Dr Stefan Furlan, CEO and Founder of Dodona Analytics, explores the hazards of extrapolating historical trends in the fast-changing EV charging market, and how you can better steer your EV charging investments.

Imagine it’s 2007, and you’re predicting the future of mobile phones. Based on the last decade, you’d think smaller devices, cheaper calls, and SMS texting were the ultimate trends. But fast forward a couple of years, and smartphones take over, leaving old predictions in the dust. Suddenly, the demand isn’t just for calls and texts but for internet browsing, video calls, and streaming, things no one saw coming by looking only at the past.

The electric vehicle (EV) charging market is facing a similar turning point. With EV adoption currently slightly over 1% in the US and over 3% in the UK and Germany, there’s a temptation to extrapolate what we know now and assume the future will look like a scaled-up version of today. But in reality, we’re in the infancy of EV adoption, and relying on past data to guide future decisions is risky business.

So why is extrapolating historical trends potentially hazardous in this fast-changing market? And what’s a better way to steer your EV charging investments in the right direction?

The perils of a straight-line forecast

Extrapolating trends means taking what you’ve got and stretching it out into the future, assuming nothing changes along the way. In a stable market, that might work. But the EV landscape is far from stable; the market is moving from niche enthusiasts to a broader base of adopters with different expectations and needs.

Today’s EV drivers are primarily early enthusiasts, financially comfortable, typically middle-aged and male, driving Teslas, and often willing to put up with a few inconveniences. They charge at home, at work, and occasionally at public chargers. But as the market grows, so will the demographic diversity. Tomorrow’s EV drivers will be a mix of urban dwellers, suburban families, young professionals, and retirees, all expecting seamless charging experiences. And that’s where simple extrapolation falls short: it misses the shifts in user behavior that come with changing demographics.

Straight-line projections also assume the current state of things is the norm, rather than a moment in a rapidly evolving journey. It’s like predicting smartphone demand based on flip phone sales in 2007. A lot can change in a few years, and failing to account for that can lead to big missteps in EV charger deployment and investment.

The real risk of extrapolating from today's trends

So what happens if you take today’s trends and just run with them? A few scenarios illustrate the potential pitfalls:

• Basing demand on current charging habits: Today’s drivers can mostly charge at home or work, so you might think public chargers aren’t in high demand. But future drivers, especially those without home charging options, will need a lot more public infrastructure. Failing to account for this means you’ll be unprepared for the surge in demand where it’s most needed.
• Overlooking demographic shifts: Today’s EV owners tend to be early adopters who are more tech-savvy and forgiving of hiccups in charging availability. But as more mainstream drivers switch to EVs, they’ll demand convenient, accessible, and reliable charging options. If you’re only projecting based on early adopter habits, you could end up overlooking prime locations that cater to a broader range of drivers.
• Ignoring the impact of policy and tech: Policies and technological advancements can change the adoption landscape in the blink of an eye. New incentives for EV ownership or faster-charging tech can reshape the market almost overnight. If you’re stuck in yesterday’s trends, you’ll be left behind when these big shifts hit.

Why black box AI models fall short

Some companies attempt to sidestep these issues by using black-box AI models, which crunch data and spit out predictions without explaining how they arrived there. Sure, this approach can seem sophisticated but it’s risky. In a market that’s changing as quickly as EV infrastructure, relying on opaque models is like following a GPS that doesn’t tell you where it’s going. The AI may offer projections, but if you don’t understand the underlying assumptions, you’re taking a leap of faith with every decision.

Black-box models often extrapolate historical data without factoring in shifts in demographics, technology, or policy. If you’re putting multi-million dollar investments into these predictions, you need more than just a number; you need a way to understand, adjust, and control your forecasting process. And that’s where transparent, or “white-box,” models come into play.

A transparent, forward-looking approach

At Dodona, we do things a bit differently. We’re not interested in providing mystical black-box solutions that leave you guessing. Instead, our models are transparent, flexible, and specifically designed to adapt as the EV market evolves. Here’s how:

• Make assumptions visible and adjustable: With our white-box models, you don’t have to take anything on faith. We make the assumptions clear and customizable, giving you the power to tailor the forecast to reflect your unique perspective and any new data that comes your way. This puts you in control of the model, not the other way around.
• Use more than just historical data: Instead of simply stretching past trends into the future, we integrate demographic insights, policy forecasts, technological advancements, and cultural shifts. This approach provides a fuller picture of what’s ahead, helping you make better decisions with a richer context.
• Adapt in a rapidly changing market: Our models are built to evolve with the market. As new data becomes available and market trends shift, our clients can refine their assumptions and adjust projections. This flexibility is crucial in an industry that’s as dynamic as EV infrastructure.

Future-proofing your investments with transparent forecasting

So before committing to a seven-, eight-, or nine-figure investment based on simplistic extrapolations, consider whether you’re comfortable with a model that’s grounded in yesterday’s trends. 

In the world of EV infrastructure, the path forward is anything but a straight line. Instead of following outdated trends or opaque models, trust in a solution that lets you see the road ahead clearly. 

With Dodona, you’re not just making a forecast; you’re building a future-ready investment strategy thanks to access to the best of both worlds: a transparent, data-driven model that balances historical insight with a forward-looking perspective.